Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
